Coach to Coach – Upset Alert: 5 Ways to Plan Against Superior Opponents.

On October 6th 2007, the Stanford Cardinals arrived at the LA Coliseum for a football game against the University of Southern California Trojans. USC was riding a 35-game home winning streak and was one of the more dominant football teams and programs in the modern era. The Cardinal, who were coming off a 1-11 2006 campaign, were being led to the expected slaughter by first- year coach Jim Harbaugh, who would be starting a backup quarterback with a total of three passes on his resume.

Las Vegas oddsmakers were so convinced that USC would have their way in the contest that they made the Trojans a whopping 41-point favorite. Harbaugh, however, didn’t buy into the Trojan hype. He had devised a game plan and scenario that, if executed properly, would at least give his undermanned team a chance to be competitive and maybe even shock the football world. By the time the final gun sounded, the Cardinal had pulled off the biggest point spread upset in NCAA history, 24-23. The Stanford win launched both the Cardinal football program and coach Jim Harbaugh to the front page of every newspaper in the country.

Upsets of this magnitude are rare. However, every season, at every level of football, undermanned teams compete and win games against superior opponents. Some coaches and programs seem to have a knack for pulling off upset wins on a regular basis. Boise State is a program that comes to mind when I think of teams who have competed and won against schools who in recruiting, history, facilities and budget have a huge advantage. What is the formula for an upset? What are some the key ingredients to winning games where you are the underdog?

One way to answer this question is to “reverse engineer” it. When you’re favored in a game, what are some of the pitfalls that may result in a loss? Some of the common things coaches point out are avoiding turnovers, never underestimating your opponent, not giving up easy touchdowns and not allowing the special teams unit to change the course of a game. These are universal themes when it comes to winning games against an inferior opponent. So, in constructing a game plan to beat a superior opponent, winning in these areas will give you and your team a chance to win the game despite having inferior talent and resources. The following are five ingredients that will allow you and your team to pull off an upset win and follow in the path of the 2007 Stanford Cardinal.
   
1.  Gameplan to gain confidence early.

Chances are, a favored team believes it can win the game by simply doing business as usual. They most likely will play the game in a very predictable way, especially early on. This gives you and your team a great opportunity to exploit the few advantages that your team may have. Scoring early with a big play can be exciting, but it can also wake a sleeping giant. Establishing consistent success, even if it is minor, is more important. Attacking one or two areas of the field that you feel your opponent may be vulnerable in is an important way to start the game. Stay persistent in your attack. In the Stanford / USC game, the Trojans led 9-0 before Stanford scored. They were, however, patient in their ground attack and that consistent physical attack against the one area that USC was vulnerable in would pay huge dividends late in the game.
 
2.  Win the special teams battle.

In the USC / Stanford contest, the tone of the game changed early when a Cardinal player blocked the extra point attempt on USC’s first touchdown. This play sent the message that, even though USC might score, Stanford would battle on every play. That blocked kick ended up being the margin of victory. In another monumental 2007 upset, Appalachian State went into Ann Arbor and beat the fifth-ranked Wolverines. The game ended when an Appalachian State player blocked a game winning field goal attempt as the clock expired.

Special teams usually play a huge part in upset wins. Special teams often allow you to match your best players against your opponents’ second-string players. If you choose this strategy, you can usually have a physical advantage in approximately 25 percent of the game. This game plan may put your best players at a slightly increased risk for injury, but the payoff can be huge if you decide to play your best in all phases of the game. If you research major upsets in high school and college football, a blocked kick, a blocked punt or kick return for a touchdown is often the catalyst for victory.
 
3.  Emphasize creating turnovers.

Every coach knows that the one thing that can give an inferior team life is giving them the ball via the turnover. When you’re faced with playing a superior team, great emphasis needs to be placed on creating turnovers. Kick return teams, defensive pursuit with emphasis on stripping the ball, and pressure package schemes all need to set goals and practice meeting these turnover objectives during the week. While your opponent is preaching ball security, you are preaching ball hawking and physical play that will result in getting your team a few extra possessions and huge boosts in momentum. In the USC / Stanford game, the Cardinal forced five turnovers while only giving up one. Plus four in the turnover margin was the key factor in that historic Cardinal victory.
 
4.  Avoid giving up the long score.

When playing a superior opponent, you want to do everything in your power to take them deep into the fourth quarter. If you stay within reach, the favorite will be shocked and fearful of losing while you will be energized and excited about the opportunity to win a game that very few gave you a chance of winning.

One way that you can improve your chances of staying close until the end is to avoid giving up the big score. A superior team is going to have some success scoring points, but making sure that they have to go through layers to do it can keep you in the game. One mistake that a coach with an  inferior team can make is subscribing to the notion that he has to do a something dramatic to win. This thinking can lead to risky play calling that often results in quick scores by the opponent. Even the best teams have a hard time completing 10-play drives on a consistent basis. The more they have to work, the more frustrating the players and coaches will become.
 
5. Use a trick play that you have practiced and perfected  to get an easy score.

One amazing upset was the 2007 Fiesta Bowl, when Boise State won over the highly-favored Oklahoma Sooners. The game turned on a hook and ladder play that allowed Boise to pick up a huge first down and the game ended on the famous Statue of Liberty two-point conversion that sent Bronco fans into football delirium. These plays were incredible to watch and at the time seemed a little lucky to pull off. However, in the days that followed, it came to light that Boise State had practiced these plays on a daily basis for most of the season. What was considered a trick play by another team was a well-rehearsed part of the Boise offense. Practicing a trick play or two and then knowing when to call it are ways that you can get an easy score or convert a huge first down against a superior opponent.

    As you look at your 2013 schedule, you probably are faced with several games where you will be the underdog. Hopefully, you can use these ingredients and a few of your own to pull off the upset win and propel your team to a great season.