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AFM Magazine

AFM Magazine


Intercepting the Game

Forget home field advantage. Teams that intercept most, win most.
by: TJ Troup
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Playoff football in the NFL leaves little margin for error. Teams survive the regular season by limiting mistakes, and taking advantage of the opposition's errors. Occasionally, there's a team that truly dominates their opponents to reach the playoffs.

But over the years, one thing is clear: The team that is most likely to win is the team that snags the interception.

During the regular season, interceptions are undeniably important. A review of all AFL/NFL games from 1946-1999 showed that interceptions were a key factor in 65 percent of all victories.

An analysis of playoff and championship games, shows interceptions are even more important in the post-season. Of the 66 games that were played between 1933-69, a whopping 71 percent were won by teams that had the most interceptions. Since the leagues merged in 1970, the pattern has continued.

Surely, there are examples when turnovers had no effect. When a team wins 73-0, for instance, obviously they are playing well on both sides of the ball.

But even on that fateful day on Dec. 8, 1940, when Chicago ran up a 73 point lead over the scoreless Redskins, interceptions were a factor. Chicago intercepted eight Redskin passes in the now infamous game.

But there are other, more straightforward examples, of how interceptions determine the outcome of a game. The Packers had six interceptions against the Giants in their 14-7 Super Bowl victory in 1944. The Cleveland Browns won back-to-back titles, in 1954 and 1955, and intercepted 13 passes in the two games.

The Chicago Bears in 1963 survived game after game with a defense that led the league with 36 interceptions, while in New York, quarterback Y.A. Tittle was breaking his own league record for touchdown passes in a season with, coincidentally, 36. When the two teams met to decide the NFC Championship on Dec. 29, 1963, the Bear defense intercepted five passes, with two of these setting up the only points that Chicago would score in the game they won 14-10.

For two seasons in the 1960s, the Raiders, and the Chiefs waged their own private little war for AFL West supremacy. In 56 regular season games during 1968 and 1969, Oakland and Kansas City lost only three times other than in games to each other. The Chiefs needed all four interceptions it got in the AFL Championship game to stop the powerful Raider passing attack and set up a date with Minnesota, and destiny.

When the two leagues merged in 1970, the playoff structure changed and playoff games increased. Since the merger, there have been 250 playoff and championship games. Though teams fight to earn the home field advantage in the playoffs, it turns out that interceptions, not home field advantage, have more to do with who wins the game.

There has been at least one home loss every season since 1970 which means home teams win 66 percent of the time. By comparison, interceptions have decided the outcome of 70 percent of the games. There have been 687 interceptions in the playoffs with 484 being snared by the winning team. Surprisingly, and inexplicably, that's 5 percent more than during the regular season.

Teams obviously don't always score on an interception. In fact, there have only been 58 interceptions returned for touchdowns in the playoffs since 1933. But 46, of 79.3 percent, have been scored by the winning team. Though it's rare to see a team compile 100 yards in interception returns during a playoff game, the 15 teams that have done it have always won the game.

As for the big game - the Super Bowl - there have been 90 interceptions in 34 Super Bowls and 73 of them, or 81 percent, have been grabbed by the ultimate victors. Denver is the only team in Super Bowl history to compile 100 yards in interception returns during the championship game. They did it by grabbing three interceptions in their 1999 win over the Atlanta Falcons.

Only a handful of players in the history of pro football have returned more than one interception for a touchdown in the playoffs. Hall of Famer Willie Brown did it three times. And although 22 different teams have returned an interception for a touchdown, the Raiders lead the pack, having done it seven times.

During the first playoffs of this new millenium keep in mind the margin for error as quarterbacks drop back into the pass pocket. A poor read, or an errant throw leads to victory over 70 percent of the time! s

T.J. Troup is a former junior college and high school football coach who lives in California and has done extensive research of NFL history. A regular contributor to American Football Monthly, in August he explained how interceptions impact regular season games.






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