Turnover Margin

The Difference Between a W and a L
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Of the more than 20 statistics the NCAA publishes, one of the most important – and maybe least recognized – is Turnover Margin. It’s not just a coincidence that consistently successful teams place high in this category.

Last fall the leaders in this statistic included USC (Division I-A); Coastal Carolina (Division I-AA); Valdosta State (Division II); Carthage College (Division III); and Central Methodist University (NAIA). Over the last five years, the D I-A leader is Miami of Florida; in that span they’re won a national championship, was a runner-up, and had two other top ten finishes..

“We strongly believe that the two most important statistics for success are turnover margin and time of possession,” says Carthage head coach Tim Rucks. His Carthage College Redmen led all colleges with a +30 differential in turnovers in 2004. Carthage accounted for 50 takeaways (19 fumble recoveries and 31 interceptions) and gave up only 20 turnovers (7 fumbles and 13 interceptions). Their turnover margin was an outstanding 2.3 per game..

“We practice daily turnover drills and make it an important part of our practices,” added Rucks. “We are always blitzing and in man coverage so our players are schooled in takeaways. Our ‘Sam’ linebacker was the fourth leading scorer on our team scoring on both fumble recoveries and interceptions.”.

Central Methodist’s head coach Merle Masonholder (above, left) agrees on the significance of turnover margin. “I talk about it visually to our offense, defense, and special teams. The more takeaways we have, the better our chances of winning that game..

“I try to stress the things in a game that will make a difference. Clearly turnover margin is one of them. Psychologically, an interception affects both the quarterback and the offensive coordinator. The quarterback may begin to doubt himself and they may be hesitant to call the same routes on the next possession.”.

Bowling Green finished third in the nation in turnover margin last fall among all 117 D I-A programs. “We stress the importance of turnovers in every practice,” says the Falcons head coach, Gregg Brandon. “Besides emphasizing the importance of takeaways we feel holding the opposition to a number of third and outs is an extension of turnover margin. If we can do that 6-8 times a game – in addition to forcing takeaways – we know we’re in a great situation. Change of possession and turnovers are all really changes in momentum that can determine a win or a loss.”.

Valdosta State won the Division II National Championship last fall and enter their sixth season under head man Chris Hatcher. “If you’re in the plus column in terms of turnover margin, it does nothing but help you. You know your defense is not always on the field and, more than anything else, turnovers change the momentum of a game. It was one of the keys to our championship season.”.

Oklahoma state champion Union High School (Tulsa) has lofty expectations for an outstanding defense. “Our coaches emphasize the importance of both stripping the ball and ball security, said head coach Bill Blankenship. “We expect three turnovers per game from our defense. It’s great to see the kids come off the field after a takeaway and see their hands held high pointing #1, the first of, hopefully, more takeaways to come.”.

Next month AFM continues it’s 10-part series by breaking down each of the top 10 statistical categories in building a championship team. September’s subject: Turnovers Gained. The original article on 10 Impact Stats to Build a Championship Team” appeared in the July issue of AFM.

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