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Rolling the Dice – Knowing the capabilities of your players is critical when evaluating the risk vs. the reward of going for it on fourth down.by: Larry Hartstein© More from this issue Les Miles is known as the Mad Hatter and the Riverboat Gambler. The perception is that, on any given fourth down, he will reach into his bag of tricks and attempt a high-risk play. But do those monikers really fit? Take 2010. LSU did lead the nation in fourth-down percentage, converting 11 of 12 times. But all but two SEC teams went for it on fourth down more often. Half the league attempted 19 or more fourth-down conversions. So it’s not as if Miles views every fourth down as a chance to pull out the stops. As he put it, “If you think about it, I’m not as wild as everybody likes to think. “I’m not necessarily a fourth-down guy,” Miles continued in an interview with AFM. “I don’t come into game plans with an eye on that down. That’s honestly a down when we plan to punt, kick a field goal, or have a very, very short situation and hopefully find an advantage that gets us a first down. I’m not a proponent of unmeasured calls on fourth down.” That said, Miles certainly has a flair for fourth-down drama. Who can forget his Tigers going 5-for-5 on fourth downs against Florida in 2007? Or the no-look flip pass/fake field goal that worked last year against Florida (albeit off a bounce) and to perfection against South Carolina in 2007? Or Josh Jasper’s 29-yard run on a fake punt against Alabama last year, followed by a fourth-and-one reverse that went for 23 yards in the fourth quarter? Or the 39-yard touchdown pass JaMarcus Russell fired to Early Doucet on fourth-and-ten to beat Arizona State in 2005? Miles’ favorite? Holder Matt Flynn’s flip to kicker Colt David for a touchdown run in the 28-16 win over the Gamecocks in 2007. Miles said he enjoyed that one the most because it was blocked well and South Carolina’s linebackers were sealed off, giving David an easy jaunt. “It looks like it’s supposed to look, and it scores,” Miles said. Miles chuckled when recalling the same play call from last year’s 33-29 win over Florida. Holder Derek Helton’s flip sailed off target but bounced right into the arms of kicker Josh Jasper, who ran five yards for the first down. “The flip pass is expected to be completed,” Miles said. “That guy is the luckiest man in the history of the world to pitch a bounce pass that bounced up perfectly to his teammate.” Miles, who also used the play successfully while coaching Oklahoma State against Kansas State in 2003, said he probably won’t call it again for years. “I look at it as an every five years play,” he said. While trick plays make great highlights, they’re rarely used. For Miles and other coaches, most fourth down conversions are the result of making good play calls that fit their personnel and their team strengths and match up well with the situation of the game. In other words, being successful on fourth down is a lot like every other down. Miles’ fourth down plays are not unique to fourth down. “Those plays that I call on fourth down, frankly they’re plays I call on third down, first down, and third-and-short. I’m not trying to devote any extra time to fourth downs,” said Miles. “They’re practiced in a way where they need to be executed anyway. It’s just that day we dial it up and it becomes a fourth-down call.” The exception is the fakes. For those, Miles keeps the standard personnel on the field so as not to tip off the defense. Miles cited Matt Flynn as a prime example of calling plays to take advantage of certain player strengths. In 2007 he flipped to David for the score against South Carolina, then ran 8 yards for a first down on another fake two weeks later against Florida. “You don’t run those plays if you don’t have Matt Flynn,” Miles said. “Those plays don’t come out without the talent. You look at your talent, and if you get a guy who’s capable and ready to run some of those plays, then they become live. Otherwise, they become dormant and you don’t use ‘em.” For another example, Miles recalled Jacob Hester twice plowing for two yards on fourth-and-one in the game-winning drive against Florida. LSU prevailed 28-24 en route to the national title. “Once we lost Hester, we lost the ability to call some of those plays,” Miles said. “They were tough runs, competitive runs, bright runs. They fought like hell to make those first downs. You don’t call those plays if you don’t have a Hester, and it’s specific to a championship team, a team that has something special to it that allows them to make those plays when they needed to make ‘em.” 3. Don’t lock yourself into one fourth-down mode. Adapt to your talent and Miles believes that flexibility is a key element in fourth down success. Your decision to go for it or not depends on your personnel, their strengths and your confidence in their ability to execute critical plays. “We all go through the same thing. To have an opportunity to win, look at their personalities and talents, and if the kids can execute those plays, then certainly call them,” said Miles. “If you have a dominant offensive lineman, you kind of hang on that dominant player and get that one yard behind him. If you have a great reverse runner, find the opportunity to run that reverse.” The same evaluation of team strengths holds true when deciding not to go for it on fourth. “If you have a defense that stuffs your opponents, you punt that sucker all the time.” Miles noted that coaches should sense the confidence level of their teams. His 2007 BCS championship team was sure it could deliver on fourth down, and it did, converting 13 of 16 tries. “With those kind of teams, they make every down and distance a little better by percentage,” Miles said. “We had a team that responded to those times when you had to make a play. They had a personality that allowed them to compete on some keys downs and distance. It was a confident team that felt they could line up and play on fourth down. When you have those teams you feel like the match-up is good and there’s an advantage – otherwise you don’t make the call.”
“You count on those specialists. They can’t hold and punt and kick all the time, so they ought to get some of those plays ready and ironed up, so you don’t have to practice them all that much (as a team). We don’t do it every day, but they do it every day.” Miles is quick to point out he is far more successful on fourth downs when he has exceptionally strong teams, like he had in 2007 and 2010. His 2009 team went just 3-for-12 on fourth downs, and the 2008 squad went 7-for-18. The trick is to recognize when your team possesses the ability and confidence to succeed in those situations, and capitalize with game-changing plays. Miles has done just that, leading to some of the most memorable games of the past decade. |
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