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AFM Magazine

AFM Magazine


Time of Possession: The most important statistic?

There are 24 official statistics measured by the NCAA - from total offense to turnover differential - but maybe the most important one isn\'t tracked
by: Terry Jacoby
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All football coaches would agree that the most important statistic is the one flashing on the scoreboard at the end of the game. But there are other statistics that help contribute to that final result up on the big board to the right and left of the zeros.

Is time of possession one of them? High school and college coaches might disagree on the final answer, but they all believe that time of possession is something to keep an eye on.

Valdosta State Coach Chris Hatcher has the highest winning percentage (.894) among active coaches in college football who have coached at least five years. He is 43-2 in the Gulf South Conference and his Blazers were National Champions in Division II last season. Hatcher and his team won the national title last year despite losing its first game of the season, 24-22 to Albany State University. Hatcher admits that maybe they could have used a little better clock management – especially after looking at the final numbers. Valdosta State had the ball 24 minutes and 40 seconds compared to 35:20 for Albany State

“Our defense was on the field a long time in that game, especially early in the game and that came back to really hurt us,” Hatcher said. Time of possession is very important early in the season, according to Hatcher.

“I don’t think players are really in game shape until the third or fourth week of the season, so (time of possession) is something to be more concerned about in the first few weeks when players tend to get tired more often. “You want to keep your defense fresh for the fourth quarter and the best place to do that is early in the game so resting them earlier will be to your advantage later in the game.”

Hatcher says he doesn’t change plays on offense in order to keep possession of the ball, but he still can manage the play clock when necessary. “We will run the play clock all the way down until running our plays,” he said. “This helps us shorten the game a little bit. It helps keep both the offensive and defensive players fresher.”

A key statistic that is a big factor with time of possession is turnovers. “If you can force a turnover and get the defense off the field, they will be that much fresher later in the game so turnovers are very important,” Hatcher said. “I like to look at how fast the quarters are going. I try to get a sense early on at how quickly the quarters are going by. Depending on the situation, I then determine whether I want to use more of the play clock and shorten the game.”

In his six seasons at Valdosta State, Hatcher has had teams that could run up the score in a hurry and teams that relied on running the ball and solid defense. “(Time of possession) is a double-edged sword,” he said. “You want your offense to score, but there are occasions when your defense has been on the field for long stretches and you want your offense to just hang onto the ball for awhile.”

A Key Factor for Success

Tim Murphy entered the 2005 season, his 12th at Harvard, with an impressive 66-43 record with the Crimson, including 57-23 in his last 80 games. Murphy believes that time of possession is a key factor to any program’s success.

“I have never seen a successful team in our league or anywhere I’ve coached for that matter that wasn’t first or second in the league in time of possession,” said Murphy, who also has coached five seasons at Cincinnati and two at Maine. “Every championship team is always near the top in time of possession.”

In the pecking order of important statistics, Murphy ranks time of possession right behind turnover ratio and scoring defense. While few things at Harvard are simple, Murphy’s philosophy for winning football games isn’t rocket science.

“We run a no huddle, attacking style offense and we like to throw the ball 70 percent in the first half and run the ball 70 percent in the second half,” Murphy said. “Because we run a no-huddle offense, the key to our success in time of possession comes in the second half."

Murphy’s “law” is basically to score enough points in the first half and focus on holding onto the ball in the second half. In Harvard’s season opener this year against Holy Cross, the Crimson led 20-14 at halftime and put the game away with 11 points in the fourth quarter of a 31-21 victory. Harvard won the time of possession battle 32:36 to 27:24, despite throwing two interceptions.

“To be successful, you have to control the football,” Murphy said. “Your offense needs to be successful in the first three quarters to allow you to control the ball and run the ball in the fourth quarter.” Having a lead allows a team to not only run the ball, but run out the clock and more often than not, win the time of possession battle.

Striving for Balance

Helena, Montana might not be as well known as South Bend or Ann Arbor or Gainesville when it comes to college football, but the home of the Carroll Fighting Saints has been “on the map” in NAIA football for years. Leading the Fighting Saints has been head coach Mike Van Diest, who is an amazing 64-16 in six full seasons at Carroll. He has led his team to five straight Final Four appearances in the NAIA national playoffs and three straight championships, including last year’s 15-13 victory over St. Francis University.

The Fighting Saints have picked up right where they left off last season, winning their first three games by a combined score of 102-35, including a 31-14 win over MSU-Northern in week 3.

The victory over MSU-Northern is a perfect snapshot of Carroll football. The Fighting Saints passed the ball 47 times and ran it 41 times. They won the time of possession and converted nine first downs, compared to only two for MSU-Northern.

But where Carroll really excels is the first half. They have outscored their opponents 64-7 in the first half in the first three games of 2005. Building such big leads allows Carroll to play the time of possession game in the second half.

“The first thing for us is we strive for balance on offense,” Van Diest said. “Our last game (against MSU-Northern) is a perfect example of what we try to do. We threw it 47 times and ran it 41 times. At halftime, we will look at time of possession and look at how many plays we have run compared to them.” If the numbers don’t show up in Carroll’s favor, Van Diest might tinker with the game plan.

“Maybe we need to use the clock better and give our defense a little rest,” he said. “We want our defense to be as fresh as possible in that fourth quarter.” But time of possession is just a part of analyzing the numbers. “I also like to look at third-down conversions and if we aren’t doing a good job of converting them, then why,” he said. “Are our third downs, third and long? If so, maybe we need to change our plays on first and second downs.” Against MSU-Northern, Van Diest saw a great opportunity to throw the ball.

“We went after them through the air,” he said. “We have a very good quarterback, but we also have some good running backs so even though we wanted to come out throwing, we still ended up with the balance we like to see at the end of the game.”

A Track Meet?

Van Diest said he has had teams that have been able to score almost at will where time of possession doesn’t really matter. It’s a good “problem” to have. And Dennis Douds at East Stroudsburg State has one of those teams where points come quickly and often.

“We go up and down the field like it’s a track meet so time of possession doesn’t mean as much to us as other teams,” said Douds, who began his 32nd year as head coach of the Warriors this season. Douds’ teams are 188-127-3 (.596 winning percentage), which ranks him fifth in victories among NCAA Division II coaches. The Warriors scored 161 points in their first three games, including a 66-49 win in Game 3 over C.W. Post.

“In that game, our longest drive was only seven plays,” Douds said. “So we didn’t hold onto the ball for very long.”

But that’s only because after touchdowns you have to kick the ball to the other team. For the Warriors, it’s all about outscoring the other team and scoring as quickly as possible.

“The only stat I care about is that we score one more point than the other team,” he said. “What philosophy you choose to try to do this is up to the coach and the talent they have. Ours is to try and score as many points as we can. Since 1990, we have averaged more than 30 points a game so we know how to score.”

Time of possession, even when it comes to resting the defense, is not an issue with Douds. “Our defense knows that our offense is going to put points on the board and that it might be quickly, so they have to be on call at all times and be ready,” he said.

Importance at the High School Level

Time of possession also is a key statistic at the high school level. Many schools now try and record the statistic and pay close attention to it during and after games. Rockhurst High School in Kansas City is a successful program that monitors time of possession on a regular basis.

“It’s a real factor against really good teams,” Coach Tony Severino said. “If we are playing an opponent that might be better than us or as good as us and has some highly skilled offensive players, then we want to keep the ball out of their hands.”

There are other factors why Severino believes that time of possession is a key statistic. “We have a lot of players that go both ways for us so we need to keep them fresh,” he said. “It takes more energy to play defense and you can find ways to rest a little bit easier on offense. Weather also is something to consider. If it’s hot out, like it is early in the season for us, we want to do a good job of holding onto the football, again for the rest.”





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